Analyst: Treo Pro Won’t Cut It; Palm Has One More Chance

Treopro1 Palm tried to create a buzz over the Treo Pro smartphone
by leaking practically all of its details before its official announcement,
but all this handset will do is keep the struggling company alive
until 2009 — when it has one last chance to revive itself with its next big device, an analyst
says.

Since 2006, Palm’s U.S. marketshare has declined each year, and the
Treo Pro won’t reverse this trend, said Tero Kuittinen, a
telecom analyst at Global Crown Capital. Rather, the Treo Pro is merely
Palm’s flotation device while the company readies its brand new handset
and mobile platform for 2009, about which little is known, Kuittinen said.

"At
the moment, Palm is just trying to keep the company going before this
hopefully revolutionary new device arrives," Kuittinen said.

He said the Treo Pro’s major downfall is its pricing in the United States, where Palm is
only offering the smartphone
for $549 — unlocked and without carrier subsidy. He explained that the
handset’s lack of subsidy
will turn off many consumers, especially
when taking into consideration Apple’s recently slashed prices of the
tremendously popular iPhone 3G.

"The problem here is the pricing structure has changed: the iPhone went
down to $200; the Samsung Instinct went down to $230," Kuittinen said.
"This is no longer the same phone market we had a year ago."

However,
Phil McClendon, Palms’ product line manager, insisted that the Treo Pro
will be a tough contender against other popular devices. He explained
that the iPhone is designed for casual consumers, while the Treo Pro
focuses on business users. As for competing with Research In Motion,
McClendon said the Treo Pro has software and networking advantages that
make the handset more convenient than RIM’s BlackBerry.

Despite
Kuittinen’s criticism regarding lack of U.S.-carrier subsidy, McClendon
defended the decision, saying users would appreciate the freedom to use
the Treo Pro wherever they wanted without having to enter new
contracts. 

Nonetheless, Nielsen Mobile’s research illustrates that Palm is constantly heading downward,
and Kuittinen said Palm needs to wow the phone market in order to get its groove back.

Just
what does Palm have in store for us next? Little is known about Palm’s
upcoming phone other
than that it will feature an entirely new platform and new hardware.
McClendon declined to
disclose details, but it’s interesting to note that just this year Palm
hired Jon Rubinstein, a former Apple engineer instrumental to the
creation of the iPod, as its head of product development. Perhaps
Rubinstein will lead Palm to introducing the next revolutionary device?

Whatever the case may be, Kuittinen suggested that the next Palm device features a
larger screen. He said the Treo Pro’s 320-by-320 pixel screen is still
too small compared to the iPhone’s 480-by-320 pixel screen. And a major
reason the iPhone is so popular is its large screen makes web browsing
a convenient experience, he explained.

Speaking on the subject of Palm’s next platform, Peter Hoddie,
president of mobile software developer Kinoma, said in order to
revitalize itself, Palm also needs to offer a suite of new, innovative
applications.

"Operating systems don’t matter to most customers," Hoddie said. "What
matters to them is what they can do…. Why do [people] love iPhone?
They love the
apps. Why don’t people love Windows Mobile? It’s in fact an amazing
operating system … but the apps on top of it? Not so inspired."

In any case, Kuittinen said consumers should feel excited about Palm’s
next offering, considering its new leader’s repertoire for
revolutionizing hardware.

"It’s really exciting; it’s one of the biggest mysteries right now," Kuittinen said. "What are they going to do?" 

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